Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 21.388069 24.356020 27.553841 31.251461 35.405112 39.922791 45.204448
2024-12-22 17.005926 21.028285 25.694167 31.490399 38.480752 46.621454 56.801882
2024-12-29 14.685245 19.141580 24.559516 31.601575 40.480051 51.266766 65.326383
2025-01-05 13.315997 18.178521 24.338049 32.664915 43.573219 57.315819 75.871559
2025-01-12 11.737799 16.698008 23.214416 32.334675 44.690770 60.758182 83.128059
2025-01-19 9.991768 14.781115 21.293712 30.711203 43.877986 61.512298 86.771659
2025-01-26 9.307914 14.247493 21.168794 31.464310 46.254463 66.570736 96.387325
2025-02-02 8.739397 13.810169 21.116296 32.272795 48.706056 71.810681 106.482524
2025-02-09 7.972807 12.997747 20.437710 32.091792 49.679244 74.967979 113.738337
2025-02-16 7.236038 12.157359 19.637627 31.645013 50.190660 77.433677 120.057938
2025-02-23 6.730686 11.631298 19.264597 31.799349 51.579577 81.215299 128.458596
2025-03-02 6.325335 11.227795 19.043466 32.156793 53.273241 85.503477 137.791837
2025-03-09 5.898601 10.762911 18.704769 32.326125 54.717801 89.544661 147.058482
2025-03-16 5.430911 10.187400 18.140649 32.084122 55.480219 92.555401 154.866999
2025-03-23 5.107620 9.831845 17.908765 32.360779 57.075289 96.921323 164.982387
2025-03-30 4.941230 9.741527 18.118527 33.391159 59.967873 103.497455 178.955977
2025-04-06 4.570388 9.242593 17.575632 33.072899 60.541199 106.284869 186.821269
2025-04-13 4.032804 8.382132 16.323115 31.408994 58.678823 104.902942 187.638087
2025-04-20 3.891271 8.271457 16.423150 32.180010 61.120697 110.884959 201.150527
2025-04-27 3.765771 8.181002 16.551577 33.004822 63.692904 117.194137 215.486624
2025-05-04 3.519960 7.827069 16.155555 32.820248 64.413823 120.302710 224.377286
2025-05-11 3.261630 7.424837 15.636608 32.363984 64.598110 122.456037 231.655766
2025-05-18 3.093675 7.197916 15.444053 32.521596 65.930122 126.705378 242.838147